Is the Real Consensus at Hong Kong 2026 That Crypto Is Finished？

In this episode of WuBlockchain AMA, we unpack key takeaways from Hong Kong Consensus and discuss where the crypto industry stands today-and where it might be headed. Guests included Colin Wu (Chief Editor of WuBlockchain), DeFi Teddy (Founder of XHunt), Leon Liu (CEO & CTO of Hubble AI), Esther (Head of Conflux Hong Kong Ecosystem), Web3 researcher Haotian, macro hedge fund PM Albert Luxon, as well as well-known KOLs Cindy Wang, Nanachan, and Kirara.

The panel shared their candid views on the current state of crypto and their impressions from the conference. With markets sluggish and AI rapidly gaining momentum, sentiment across the industry has clearly shifted. Many participants expressed growing pessimism about crypto’s near-term outlook. The so-called “consensus” seems to have changed, as traditional crypto narratives and projects are facing mounting pressure.

That said, not everyone agreed that “crypto is finished.” Several speakers argued that while speculation-driven cycles may be fading, real opportunities remain-especially in payments, compliance, stablecoins, and institutional infrastructure. The intersection of AI and Web3 was widely seen as a key frontier, with decentralized systems and the emerging AI-driven economy potentially opening up a new chapter for the industry.

Beyond the big-picture debate, guests also shared some entertaining and even absurd moments from the event. Overall, despite a tough market and shaken confidence, many in the space are still searching for the next direction-and haven’t given up on crypto just yet.

The audio transcription is done by GPT and may contain errors.

Part 1: Impressions from Hong Kong Consensus

Colin: Strong Government Backing, But Few Real Industry Catalysts

Colin: First, the vibe felt quiet. I joked on Twitter that it was the first crypto event where you had to buy your own drinks. That says something about the atmosphere.

Second, the Hong Kong government clearly took the event very seriously. Senior officials showed up and even announced new policies. At the official level, support was strong.

But on the industry side, there weren’t many real catalysts. Globally, prediction markets and tokenized equities are hot, but both face regulatory challenges in Hong Kong, so there wasn’t much concrete progress discussed.

RWA was mentioned, especially given new mainland policies, but since the event was largely overseas-driven, discussion around mainland and Hong Kong developments was limited.

Haotian: From Fragmentation to Collective Pessimism

Haotian: At the last Consensus, everyone was pushing their own narrative-DeFi, RWA, AI, community. No shared direction, no real consensus.

This time, ironically, there is a consensus: “crypto is finished.” The dominant mood is unified pessimism. That’s not necessarily my personal view, but it’s the atmosphere I felt.

I expected this event-being more internationally driven-to feel more optimistic than Asia-heavy conferences earlier in the year. But that wasn’t the case. Chinese projects and KOLs were mostly bearish. Overseas teams weren’t much better-many seemed detached, almost numb, just building in isolation without urgency.

To me, that’s worse than open frustration. At least criticism pushes change. Indifference doesn’t.

Personally, I came focused on AI, trying to avoid the negative mood. That helped. Overall, I’m disappointed-but still hoping new directions can emerge from this reset.

Cindy: A Private Club Vibe-Bullish’s CEO and Sun Yuchen’s Banana Moment

Cindy: This year’s Consensus felt surreal-in both good and absurd ways.

It was basically a room full of top-tier insiders, almost no retail. You never knew who was sitting next to you. At one session, I asked the guy beside me what hand cream he was using-it smelled great. Thirty minutes later, he went on stage. Turns out he was Tom Farley, CEO of Bullish and an investor in CoinDesk.

I also randomly ran into the CEO of Securitize. Just the day before, BlackRock announced it had bought UNI, with Securitize handling compliance. So yes, lots of heavyweight players.

The most absurd moment? At a party, Justin Sun said he’d send everyone dessert. Huge box. We opened it-just one banana inside. A nod to the famous taped-banana NFT he bought. Totally bizarre, but very on-brand.

Teddy: Quiet Main Stage, Institutional Shift, and AI as the New Gravity

Teddy: This year felt very different from past Consensus events. I usually spend at least half a day at the main stage. This time, I stayed maybe an hour.

Most projects there were institutional or compliance-focused-not the kind of crypto-native teams we’re used to. Hard to find common ground. I only had a brief chat with Alibaba Cloud. Side events were actually more productive.

My biggest takeaway: the institutional era is here. Institutions are coming in, retail is fading out. With big capital comes compliance, licenses, regulation-none of which are retail-friendly. This feels like a turning point.

Is crypto finished? No. Decentralization still matters. The demand is still there.

But AI is pulling attention, capital, and builders away from crypto. The real “consensus” now isn’t that crypto is dead-it’s that people need to pivot to AI.

There are two paths: fully leave crypto for pure AI, or combine AI with Web3-AI agents, AI tools for growth, trading, operations, etc.

If I had to sum it up: institutionalization, AI pivot, and low sentiment. That’s the mood.

Nana: Chinese Rooms Talk Prices, English Rooms Stay Chill-AI Is Now Standard

Nana: I attended both Chinese-speaking and English-speaking gatherings.

In the Chinese rooms-mostly exchange-related-the focus was almost entirely on price. Every event, people asked: “Is this a good time to buy the dip?” “What coins are worth investing in?” Sentiment was highly reactive to market moves.

In the English-speaking events, mostly founders and KOLs from Dubai and Europe, no one talked about price. Conversations were casual-ideas, life, long-term views. They seemed less emotionally tied to short-term volatility.

I think part of it is exposure-many in the Chinese community hold larger positions, so price swings hit harder.

Trend-wise, I agree with Teddy. Even in a weak market, there are still many projects building-but they’re concentrated in a few areas.

The biggest one is AI. Almost every project now adds an AI angle-whether it’s payments, RWA, or something else. AI has become a default narrative.

I’ve also seen Web3 founders pivot entirely to AI, likely because capital is flowing there.

That said, founders should be clear about their strengths. AI and Web3 operate under very different funding and business logics. Blindly pivoting isn’t always the right move.

Esther: Prediction Markets, Stablecoins, and the Battle for Chinese Liquidity

Esther: Just my personal view.

I was busy hosting events, so I didn’t attend much-but a few trends stood out.

First, prediction markets are everywhere. Dozens, maybe hundreds of teams. Not just crypto natives-licensed brokers and even casino-backed groups are entering. They see it as the next on-chain “casino” with real traffic potential.

Second, many Chinese teams are launching stablecoins-not just USD, but non-USD versions too. Even application-layer teams, like livestreaming platforms, want to issue their own stablecoins to control settlement and liquidity instead of relying on others.

Third, market makers are back and actively sourcing deals, likely due to tighter liquidity and performance pressure.

The event was highly international. At the same time, major Western exchanges like Coinbase and Kraken are clearly targeting the Chinese market. They see strong trading activity and capital there-and with products like tokenized equities, they believe they have an edge.

Bottom line: global competition for Chinese liquidity is heating up.

Albert: Fewer Trading Teams, TradFi Taking Over, Liquidity Risks Rising

Albert: From a secondary market and fund perspective, this year’s Consensus felt much weaker than last year-smaller scale, no new faces. Mostly the same infra, compliance, and service providers. Very little fresh blood.

At institutional-only side events, trading teams were down roughly a third. Many arbitrage and funding-rate desks were wiped out after last October. Yet 85% of teams are still running the same old strategies. Real skill-based strategies-market making, long-short, volatility-are rare, and new entrants are almost nonexistent.

Institutional focus has shifted to payments and RWA, but both are becoming license-driven businesses. Strong compliance and traditional financial credibility now matter more than crypto-native experience. TradFi players are clearly moving in to take control.

Capacity is also limited-most strategies can’t absorb large capital anymore. LPs now demand cross-market capability: crypto plus equities, commodities, and more.

Even institutional side events felt weak-few real trading teams, more service providers. And during the conference, news broke that a major institution halted withdrawals. In a bear market, that kind of shock reignites systemic risk fears.

Bottom line: the market is transitioning toward traditional financial dominance. For adaptable teams, it’s an opportunity. For others, it could mean getting wiped out.

Kirara: From “Hunting Projects” to “Hunting Food”-KOLs Pivot to AI

Kirara: The biggest shift this year? People aren’t looking for projects anymore-they’re looking for food.

In past years, as a KOL, I’d meet agencies and founders, hunting for the next big narrative. This time, no one’s talking about new coins, airdrops, or making money. With BTC down, price talk has faded.

Now the question is: “What are you building?” A lot of people are learning vibe coding and experimenting with AI tools. In a bear market, everyone suddenly becomes a product builder. AI side projects, small apps-that’s the new focus.

The mood feels detached. No one cares about 10x coins or BTC hitting new highs. Even political rants have cooled off.

At events, exchanges were still the most crowded and extravagant-Binance, BitMart. They clearly have the budget. Project-hosted side events were fewer, though one stood out-multiple teams hosting a banquet-style event that felt more like a wedding.

Part 2: Is Crypto Really “Finished”? Where Are the Opportunities?

Kirara: Old Narratives Fading, AI Becoming Infrastructure

Kirara: I wouldn’t say crypto is finished. The industry isn’t dead-but some old narratives definitely are.

Bitcoin’s story has evolved. First it was privacy and censorship resistance. Then it became “digital gold.” Now, the force that once drove explosive growth feels weaker. The old drivers of hype are fading.

The same goes for projects. Some teams have been building for years without TGE or breakout traction. But crypto moves fast-like a talent show. A narrative window may last only three or four months. If you don’t “debut” during that cycle, it’s hard to come back.

We’ve already seen hot narratives from months ago disappear from conversations at this year’s Consensus. Miss the timing, and it’s over.

AI is also shifting. Last year, AI was a selling point-AI trading bots, AI companions, etc. This year, AI isn’t a feature; it’s infrastructure. If your project doesn’t integrate AI, that’s what feels strange. AI has gone from a label to a baseline.

So crypto isn’t dead-but the playbook has changed. If you’re still stuck in old narratives, then yes, that version of crypto is over.

Albert: Not Dead-Just Maturing. Crypto Is Becoming Financial Infrastructure

Albert: I wouldn’t call it “finished.” I’d call it maturing.

Since 2024, the crypto landscape has been consolidating. The market now knows which sectors generate stable cash flow and which don’t. At Consensus, almost everything revolved around four areas: payments, trading, compliance, and risk control.

That tells you something. Crypto is no longer seen as a limitless innovation lab-it’s becoming financial infrastructure. Innovation is narrowing, focusing on practical financial functions.

That’s why payments and RWA dominated. And why the future looks increasingly like a license-driven business-whoever has compliance and credibility wins.

Some sectors, though, may genuinely shrink-like crypto-native token listings. Many serious projects now prefer IPOs over token listings. If they grow big enough, they’d rather list on Nasdaq or HKEX than on a crypto exchange.

Traditional exchanges and institutions are pushing tokenization. If you can get the backing of major banks and go public, you gain better valuation, liquidity, and long-term capital than through a pure crypto listing.

This shift changes perception: public-market listings signal quality; crypto-only listings start to look risky. Even Korean retail traders are moving toward U.S.-listed crypto stocks instead of exchange tokens.

As a result, crypto exchanges may shift roles-from profit-heavy listing platforms to secondary service providers focused on custody, fiat rails, and fees. Coinbase leans on ETF custody; Kraken on fiat and FX channels. Their long-term positioning will depend on these strengths.

So crypto isn’t dead-it’s stabilizing. But maturity means lower excess returns, tighter innovation, and stronger traditional finance influence. The champagne-and-Lamborghini era? Probably over.

Cindy: The Pure “Crypto Era” Is Over-Integration With TradFi Has Begun

Cindy: Is crypto finished? Half yes.

The standalone “crypto-only era” is clearly over. Just look at exchanges-Binance, Bitget are pushing tokenized U.S. equities. Matrixport recently enabled stablecoin deposits to buy U.S. stocks.

They see real user data. When BTC approached $120K, whales were already rotating into U.S. AI stocks. If exchanges don’t upgrade, high-net-worth users leave. It’s no longer about maintaining a few VIP relationships.

But at the same time, the fusion of crypto and traditional finance is accelerating.

Stablecoins are the clearest example. Traditional payment players used to profit from fees and FX spreads. Now stablecoins offer faster, cheaper, more transparent settlement. Clients are pushing payment firms to integrate them.

There’s real crossover demand-exchanges, asset managers, wallets, OTC desks are all looking at payment integration. Everyone’s under KPI pressure and hunting for growth.

Who’s doing well?

First, teams that capture local policy tailwinds-especially those moving quickly under Hong Kong’s regulatory framework.

Second, HK-listed companies that pivot into crypto narratives while retaining traditional market credibility.

So yes-the pure “crypto bubble” phase is fading. But deep integration between crypto and traditional finance is just getting started.

Esther: Policy Tailwinds, U.S. Backing-and the Real Risk Is a “Mental Bear Market”

Esther: The projects doing well are those riding policy momentum. Hong Kong’s new tokenization rules create a clear, compliant framework. For teams that stayed on the regulatory path, this is a real opportunity.

Who’s in danger? Those stuck in old playbooks. Quant teams that don’t upgrade strategies will get wiped out again. Projects and agencies still using last cycle’s tactics won’t survive. Chasing hype after the window closes doesn’t work anymore.

Three groups are still strong:

First, businesses with real revenue and clear models-especially payment and enterprise-facing services. Interestingly, many don’t even want the “Web3” label anymore because it hurts valuation.

Second, “American-native” projects with strong political and capital backing-like LayerZero, supported by major Wall Street players. They have influence and pricing power.

Third, traditional brokers. For them, crypto is just another product line-higher margins, new revenue. Many are upgrading licenses and actively selling crypto.

My final point: the real danger isn’t a price bear market-it’s a mindset bear market. When OGs become numb or resistant to change, that’s when the industry truly risks decline.

Nana: Weak Projects Cleared Out, Institutions Hold the Chips

Nana: I agree with Esther. From a founder’s view, the low-quality, hype-driven projects are being flushed out. In the past, a strong VC logo was enough to launch a token-even without a real product.

That no longer works. Liquidity is tight, VCs are cautious, and without real traction or cash flow, projects struggle to survive. I actually think this is healthy-survival of the fittest improves overall quality.

From an investor’s view, though, it’s tougher for retail. Institutions now hold most of the chips in major assets, giving them stronger control over market moves. Retail opportunities are shrinking.

Some retail traders turn to meme coins, but after last year’s volatility and repeated FUD cycles, enthusiasm has cooled.

So yes-fewer easy gains for retail, more institutional dominance. Short-term upside is limited, but the industry may become more sustainable in the long run.

Haotian: Sentiment Is Broken-But Agentic Economy Could Be the Next Consensus

Haotian: Let’s be honest-sentiment is broken. Holders, founders, VCs-everyone’s exhausted. Old narratives and old playbooks no longer work.

Retail still dreams of 10x or 100x gains, but that mindset has only led to losses this cycle. Valuations are compressed. AI looks more attractive-easier funding, clearer growth. Even buying U.S. AI stocks may feel safer than holding altcoins.

Why? Oversupply. Token launches have become industrialized. Meme cycles shrink from months to days, even minutes. TGE has become a factory process. The era of “just hold and get rich” is over. Consensus has fractured.

OGs either made enough and left, or simply can’t relate to the new game. Exchanges are also shifting-tokenized stocks, AI strategies, fragmented liquidity. The old on-chain flywheel is gone.

Some projects like Hyperliquid broke out, but they’re rare. Tech narratives like ZK or BTC L2 have faded. It feels like an entire generation of stories is receding.

But is there a new direction? I believe in Agentic Economy.

AI consensus is forming. Think of stablecoins as value rails, prediction markets as information pricing, AI trading as execution, robotics as physical AI. Connect them, and you get an AI-driven economic framework spanning Web2 and Web3.

Next cycle won’t be pure speculation. But around Agentic Economy, new meaningful narratives can emerge.

So yes-sentiment is dead. Old consensus is collapsing. But a new AI + crypto consensus may be taking shape.

Teddy: The Real Crisis Is Lack of Innovation-Agentic Economy as the Way Forward

Teddy: Before asking whether crypto is finished, we should ask: what’s its core?

It’s decentralization-both the technology and the ethos. That won’t disappear.

The real issue is perception. Many now feel crypto lacks utility. Too many low-value assets, fading conviction, builders and capital leaving.

The root cause? No breakthrough innovation in recent years.

Bitcoin introduced decentralized money. Ethereum brought smart contracts. DeFi created real on-chain financial primitives. Each wave reshaped the industry.

This cycle hasn’t produced an equivalent breakthrough. Instead, projects chase listings, stop building after TGE, and tokens peak on day one. When assets lack long-term value, confidence collapses. Builders and VCs exit, supply shrinks-this is the real crisis.

So what’s next?

Prediction markets have potential but lack transformative impact. AI, however, does.

AI coding tools can turn ideas into products in minutes. Large language models now execute tasks, not just analyze them. That’s a productivity leap.

This is why Agentic Economy makes sense-AI agents handling execution, stablecoins as value rails, on-chain systems as coordination layers. Crypto must align with this direction to regain relevance.

Another long-term path is decentralized AI. Today’s AI is centralized and opaque. A transparent, verifiable, community-owned AI network aligns deeply with crypto’s original vision. It’s early, but conceptually powerful.

Bottom line: crypto isn’t dead. But without real innovation, belief fades. The next meaningful consensus likely emerges at the intersection of Agentic Economy and decentralized AI.

Leon: Global but Quiet-AI Trading and Prediction Markets as the Next Themes

Leon: As an exhibitor, my view is a bit different. The event was clearly international-roughly half overseas attendees. If this were a bull market, it could’ve been a powerful bridge between Asia and global players.

But overall, it felt cold. Few standout crypto-native projects-mostly exchanges and service providers. Even though prediction markets are hot, we were almost the only team focused on them. AI projects were also limited. The meme hackathon sponsor was nearly empty-clear sign the meme cycle is over.

This bear market feels heavier than 2022. Back then, even in downturns, we had SocialFi, GameFi, inscriptions-new narratives kept emerging. This cycle hasn’t produced that.

Still, I see three opportunities:

First, derivatives-both CEX and DEX perps. In bear markets, volatility remains. Trading large caps with leverage is more viable than chasing short-lived memes. Tokenized stocks, commodities, and FX on-chain are also growing, offering retail tools they couldn’t access before.

Second, AI. From protocol-level standards to AI agents and trading automation, momentum is strong. The key question is how AI integrates with crypto. If AI can reshape Hollywood, it can reshape trading too.

Third, prediction markets. Still early, but not just crypto-native-institutions are watching. As an on-chain application, crypto insiders have an advantage.

Bearish mood aside, these areas could define the next cycle.