财政部公布适销借款预估

财政部公布适销借款预估|美国财政部
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财政部公布适销借款预估
2026 年 11 月 2 日
来源和用途表
华盛顿 — — 美国财政部今天公布了对 2026 年 10 月至 12 月和 2027 年 1 月至 3 月季度私人持有的可流通净借款的当前估计。
假设 12 月底现金余额为 8500 亿美元，财政部预计在 2026 年 10 月至 12 月这一季度借入 6180 亿美元的私人持有净可流通债务。借款预估比 2026 年 8 月宣布的低 100 亿美元，主要是由于季度初现金余额高于预期，但预计净现金流量下降部分抵消了这一预期。不包括高于预期的季初现金余额，当前季度借款预估比 8 月份宣布的高出 240 亿美元。
假设 3 月底现金余额为 1.000 万亿美元，财政部预计在 2027 年 1 月至 3 月季度借入 8000 亿美元的私人持有净可流通债务。
在 2026 年 7 月至 9 月的季度中，财政部借入了 7,420 亿美元的私人持有的可流通净债务，该季度末的现金余额为 9,840 亿美元。 2026 年 8 月，财政部估计借款为 7,390 亿美元，并假设 9 月底现金余额为 9,500 亿美元。私人持有的可售净借款增加 40 亿美元，主要是由于季末现金余额高于预期，但被净现金流量增加所抵消。不包括高于假设的季末现金余额，实际借款比 8 月份宣布的少 300 亿美元。
与财政部季度退款相关的其他融资细节将于 2026 年 11 月 4 日星期三上午 8:30 发布。
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1. 私人持有的可流通净借款不包括 SOMA 中持有的国债展期（拍卖“附加”），但包括因 SOMA 赎回所需的融资。 SOMA 在二级市场购买国债不会直接改变私人持有的可流通净借款，但在其他条件相同的情况下，当证券到期并假设美联储不赎回任何到期证券时，将通过增加 SOMA“附加”金额来增加给定私人持有拍卖规模筹集的现金金额。此外，由于新发行的证券取代了回购的证券，预计回购不会对私人持有的净可流通借款产生重大影响。
2.
现金余额
七月至九月季度
十月至十二月季度
假设
事先
当前
改变
事先
当前
改变
期初余额
919 美元
$0
950 美元
984 美元
34 美元
期末余额
950 美元
984 美元
34 美元
$850
$0
对借款的影响
31 美元
65 美元
34 美元
-100美元
-$134
-$34

Treasury Announces Marketable Borrowing Estimates | U.S. Department of the Treasury
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Press Releases
Treasury Announces Marketable Borrowing Estimates
November 2, 2026
Sources and Uses Table
WASHINGTON – The U.S. Department of the Treasury today announced its current estimates of privately-held net marketable borrowing for the October–December 2026 and January–March 2027 quarters.
During the October–December 2026 quarter, Treasury expects to borrow $618 billion in privately-held net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-December cash balance of $850 billion. The borrowing estimate is $10 billion lower than announced in August 2026, primarily due to the higher-than-assumed beginning of quarter cash balance, partially offset by lower projected net cash flows. Excluding the higher-than-assumed beginning-of-quarter cash balance, the current quarter borrowing estimate is $24 billion higher than announced in August.
During the January–March 2027 quarter, Treasury expects to borrow $800 billion in privately-held net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-March cash balance of $1.000 trillion.
During the July–September 2026 quarter, Treasury borrowed $742 billion in privately-held net marketable debt and ended the quarter with a cash balance of $984 billion. In August 2026, Treasury estimated borrowing of $739 billion and assumed an end-of-September cash balance of $950 billion. The $4 billion in higher privately-held net marketable borrowing resulted primarily from the higher-than-assumed end-of-quarter cash balance, offset by higher net cash flows. Excluding the higher-than-assumed end-of-quarter cash balance, actual borrowing was $30 billion lower than announced in August.
Additional financing details relating to Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding will be released at 8:30 a.m. on Wednesday, November 4, 2026.
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1. Privately-held net marketable borrowing excludes rollovers (auction “add-ons”) of Treasury securities held in the SOMA but includes financing required due to SOMA redemptions. Secondary market purchases of Treasury securities by SOMA do not directly change privately-held net marketable borrowing but, all else equal, when the securities mature and assuming the Federal Reserve does not redeem any maturing securities, would increase the amount of cash raised for a given privately-held auction size by increasing the SOMA “add-on” amount. Additionally, buybacks are not expected to significantly affect privately-held net marketable borrowing as new issuance replaces securities that are bought back.
2.
Cash Balance
July - September Quarter
October - December Quarter
Assumptions
Prior
Current
Change
Prior
Current
Change
Opening Balance
$919
$0
$950
$984
$34
Closing Balance
$950
$984
$34
$850
$0
Impact on Borrowing
$31
$65
$34
-$100
-$134
-$34